So, is it actually going to snow *that* much in NY this weekend?

Short answer: maybe yes, maybe no—but it’s enough of a maybe that the city is getting ready for the real thing.

Forecast models are currently toying with big numbers for the New York City area as a sprawling winter storm barrels toward the East Coast this weekend. Depending on which model you trust (and that’s a big caveat), the city could see anywhere from a few inches to something much more headline-worthy, with early projections ranging from roughly 3 to 12 inches across the five boroughs. Some forecasts for the broader tri-state area go even higher.

The storm’s track is driving the uncertainty. A slight shift north or south will determine whether New York gets hours of fluffy snow or whether warmer air sneaks in, turning part of the event into a messy mix of sleet and freezing rain, especially closer to the coast. 

Here’s what does seem consistent across forecasts: timing. Snow is expected to start early Sunday, intensify through Sunday afternoon and evening and taper off late Sunday night into Monday. Even if totals end up on the lower end, the storm’s peak coincides with the worst possible window for travel and forecasters are already warning that Monday morning could be rough.

City officials are preparing for a wide range of outcomes. Mayor Zohran Mamdani said the city is planning for up to a foot of snow, with pre-treatment of streets beginning Friday. About 2,000 sanitation workers will shift to 12-hour schedules starting Saturday and roughly 700 salt spreaders are expected to be deployed citywide. Plowing will begin as soon as the snow becomes plowable.

The cold isn’t going anywhere either. An Arctic air mass will settle over the region ahead of the storm, sending temperatures into the teens and pushing wind chills into the single digits. That cold will help snow stick, but it also raises concerns about prolonged icy conditions and dangerously low temperatures that could linger well into next week. A Code Blue remains in effect and outreach teams will be checking on vulnerable New Yorkers.

For perspective, Central Park hasn’t seen more than a foot of snow since February 2021, when over 17 inches fell. It’s too early to say whether this weekend joins that club, but it’s close enough that New Yorkers should take the forecast seriously.

The numbers will shift again before Sunday, for sure. But between the timing, the cold and the city’s posture, this is shaping up as a legitimate winter storm. Keep checking updates and maybe don’t plan that early Monday meeting just yet.

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